Black swans, butterfly effects, terrorist detectors and marketing research: we don’t know nearly as much as we think we do
Prediction is a big, big business these days, and even those of us who aren’t explicitly in the prediction business probably do all we can to make sense of the future. For example:
- Does your company do marketing research? (If it’s a business of any size and sophistication, the answer is probably yes.)
- Do you track the financial pages?
- Do you keep abreast of the latest innovations in your industry (or any industry, for that matter)?
- Have you factored in economic considerations when trying to decide whether or not to buy a house?
- If you have an IRA, have you factored in where you think the damned economy is going in making fund decisions? Read more