Black swans, butterfly effects, terrorist detectors and marketing research: we don’t know nearly as much as we think we do
Prediction is a big, big business these days, and even those of us who aren’t explicitly in the prediction business probably do all we can to make sense of the future. For example: Does your company do marketing research? (If it’s a business of any size and sophistication, the answer is probably yes.) Do you track the financial pages? Do
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